On Friday, November 11th, the Associated Press and other outlets projected that incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly had won the contest for Arizona’s open Senate seat. He defeated Trump-endorsed candidate Blake Masters, though at the time of writing Masters has yet to concede the race. Days later, the Associated Press called the gubernatorial race in favor of Democrat Katie Hobbs over Republican Kari Lake. Regardless of the final ballot count, it is undeniable that Lake outperformed Masters in the state.  

What is responsible for this disconnect? At first glance, Kari Lake and Blake Masters appear to be very similar candidates. Both are ardent supporters of Donald Trump and have continued to raise concerns over election integrity in 2020. The two staunch conservatives ran on concerns of inflation and immigration in the border state and argued against “woke” movements in education and in government. There are also, however, key differences between the two.

Blake Masters has been criticized for his history of inflammatory comments; on a podcast in April, he said of gun violence: “It’s people in Chicago, St. Louis shooting each other. Very often, you know, Black people, frankly”. The former venture capitalist’s perceived extremism on key issues like abortion – he previously supported a Constitutional amendment banning abortion, before removing the item from his campaign website in August – was likely off-putting to some moderate and independent voters. Meanwhile, Kari Lake was more well known to Arizonians due to her long stretch as an anchor on KSAZ-TV, which helped hone her media skills and gave her a natural ease in speeches and in front of the camera. While there is no question that Lake has a natural ability to connect with voters and campaign, questions have often risen on Masters’ ability to do the same. Steven Law, the head of the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, which hesitated to invest in the Arizona race and canceled its planned television reservation in the state, reportedly told Masters’ chief primary election financier Peter Thiel that Masters had “scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen.” Meanwhile, Lake’s poise and gravitas have helped establish her as a rising star in the GOP.

Many have credited Lake’s media savvy for her comparatively greater success than Masters in Arizona. Arguably less attention, however, has been paid to the quality of the Democratic candidates for both Senate and Governor in Arizona. Senator Mark Kelly is a former astronaut whose wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, was the victim of gun violence. He’s worked, somewhat successfully, to distance himself from the Biden administration on issues like border security and labor relations, despite generally being a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate.

Meanwhile, Katie Hobbs has faced criticism for refusing to debate Lake, as well as for her limited presence on the campaign trail. Despite efforts to portray her race as a battle between sanity and chaos in Arizona, this has led to a perception that Hobbs is “scared” of Lake’s aggressive style of political combat. Supporters also worried that Hobbs spent too little time attempting to appeal to independents and moderate Republicans, choosing instead to focus on “safe” left-leaning groups like abortion rights advocates and labor unions. Despite Kelly and Hobbs’ similar political stances, this difference in candidate quality, which many have discussed in relation to Republicans’ disappointing midterms performance, likely contributed to weaker Democratic performance in the gubernatorial election compared to the Senate race.

In a time of heightened political division, Democratic and Republican officials could be forgiven for assuming that midterm voters would cast their ballots based solely on issues like abortion, state of the economy, and even their opinions on Donald Trump. However, as we saw in Arizona, “candidate quality” still matters to voters, especially in statewide elections. Though the exact numbers are not yet known, we can expect to see a significant number of voters cast ballots for both Mark Kelly and Kari Lake, two candidates with personal appeal but very few shared political beliefs. Looking to 2024, Republican and Democrat primary voters should take these results as a warning to be more cognizant of the strength of their candidates beyond their political identity.