On November 8th, 2022, at 8:40pm, Lauren Boebert, U.S. House candidate for Colorado’s 3rd district tweeted “The red wave has begun.” Reflecting the nationwide failure of the much-expected red wave, Boebert’s previously Republican stronghold district is only within 1,122 votes or 0.4 percent. Under these less than 0.5 percent margins, an automatic recount may be triggered.

Congresswoman Boebert, formally endorsed by former President Donald Trump, positioned herself boldly as a faith and flag conservative. Pro-gun, America-First, and pro-Constitution, Congresswoman Boebert affiliates with current Republican leadership on strong borders, school choice measures, and limited federal government. Post the Dobbs decision this July, Boebert campaigned as an avid pro-life conservative, arguing that life begins at conception and that Planned Parenthood should not receive any type of federal funding.

Prior to her original election in 2020, Boebert had no political experience other than a strong history of 2nd Amendment advocacy. In 2013, Boebert and her husband opened Shooter’s Grill in Rifle, CO in which she encouraged her servers to carry guns. She rose to national fame when she confronted Beto O’Rourke over his gun proposal for a buyback program and ban on assault style rifles.

Boebert astonishingly won her first primary election in 2020, toppling incumbent Congressman Scott Tipton by a strong 9.2 percent despite Joe Biden winning the state by 13.4 percent. Prior to the 2022 midterms, the Cook Political Report rated her seat safely red, with their Partisan Voting Index (PVI) showing that the seat held a 7-point Republican advantage. However, little known Democrat Adam Frisch has all but erased this advantage and has made Colorado’s 3rdCongressional District a highly watched race as it heads into recount territory.

In terms of evaluating this shift from 2020 to 2022, poorer voter turnout in a presidential off year must be acknowledged. In 2020, there were 440,604 votes in Colorado’s 3rd district, dramatically more than the only 323,000 votes that have been counted so far this cycle. This 26.6 percent decrease in voting follows historical trends that reflect lower turnout in midterm election years. 

There are a number of theories as to why the race has been so close, starting with the much proclaimed “candidate quality matters” narrative. Boebert no doubt operates on the fringes of her party, and Frisch has managed to secure a district-wide blue shift relative to 2020’s presidential election margins. Boebert and Trump also both refused to align with losing statewide Colorado Senate candidate Joe O’Dea, displaying a departure from the Trump boost which drove turnout in her district and propelled her to victory even as Trump lost the state in 2020. O’Dea also distanced himself from Trump, which may have been popular statewide but could have suppressed turnout among Boebert’s MAGA base. Finally, increased turnout among young women in a post Dobbs world might have helped Frisch against the avidly pro-life Boebert. Boebert may eventually come out on top, but in a much closer race than most had imagined.